Oil futures surged after the war with Iran began in late February 2026. Brent crude jumped 10-13% in price, to about $80-82 per barrel in the first days of the conflict and later climbed toward $90-$100, briefly approaching $120 during peak fears that fighting could disrupt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Ultimately, delivering a potential $63 billion windfall to U.S. oil producers in the opening days. The conflict also boosted military spending, channeling billions toward U.S. defense contractors including Lockheed Martin, RTX Corporation, and Northrop Grumman, as new orders for missile defense systems, aircraft, and munitions pile up.

While maximally the U.S. may have hoped to quickly establish a puppet state in Iran with the decapitation of the Ayatollah, it has demonstrated it’s hesitancy to fully commit to the conflict and reluctance to engage in massive destruction of the Iranian state’s oil industry which would completely destabilize the country economically, leading to chaos, or even maybe the waking of the aforementioned stone guest...Yet the United States whether or not it accomplishes its maximal aim will continue to reap massive rewards from an extension of the conflict. Commenting on the war Trump recently stated “The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World… when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money.”

While higher oil prices in fact benefit the U.S., it must cautiously work to control how high they rise. Thus, U.S. strikes on Iranian energy sites have been carefully calibrated rather than aimed at completely destroying Iran’s entire oil industry. While some facilities linked to military logistics or shipping have reportedly been targeted, core export infrastructure, such as terminals and loading facilities that handle most Iranian crude, have so far largely remained operational, and tankers have continued leaving Iranian ports. The main reason appears to be concern over global energy markets. Destroying Iran’s infrastructure could trigger a major supply shock and drive prices sharply higher. As the measured nature of sanctions on Russian oil show, U.S. imperialism is keenly aware of the risk that out of control energy prices would have on the economy as a whole. While thousands of proletarians are massacring the architects of the war, the capitalist class on both sides sit back, openly collaborating together as they coldly calculate how much more blood of their respective proletarians’ blood must be spilt to keep profit rates up.