On January 13, new data on voting intentions in Quebec and analyzed it in an article published in l’Actualité.  The projected number of seats for the Coalition Avenir Québec would be 93: an increase of 19 seats (when it needs only 63 to get a majority). As for Québec solidaire, the same poll projects eight seats, that is, two fewer than in the 2018 election. So we are quite far from an orange wave, and even further from taking power. The same goes for the Liberal Party, which would drop from 31 seats to 21 and the Parti Québécois from 10 to 3. The CAQ would be the big winner, stealing seats from all the other parties, which is not surprising with an approval rating of 57%.

Conservative Party a new force?

Voting intentions for the governing party - the CAQ - are estimated to have declined by about 4 points between December 9, 2021 and January 13, 2022. It would appear that the announcement of the curfew - a widely denounced and very unpopular measure among the population - has affected the popularity of the party in power. During this same period, the Conservative Party of Quebec’s (PCQ) voting intentions rose from 5.1% to 8.5%. One could therefore hypothesize here that there has been a shift in the electorate from the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) to the PCQ, and thus a shift from the right, to the right. The Conservative Party’s demogogic opposition to the curfew seems to have allowed it to swell its ranks to 40,000 members by December 31, 2021, and to pass the 45,000 mark on January 15, 2021 - a spectacular increase. By comparison, the Parti Québécois currently has 43,000 members, while the Liberal Party and Québec solidaire are close to 20,000 members. While everything is still up in the air, it seems clear that the Conservative Party will be a new political force in the years to come, and that it is in fact this party that has the "wind in its sails.
Upcoming Elections

Quebec has officially begun its election year. This October, the people of Quebec will be called to the polls. Looking at the data available to us, we do not believe that the election will cause a general surprise and that a Caquist majority government remains the most likely scenario at this time. In any case, what is not in doubt is the dominance of "the right" in the province’s political landscape. The "left" has effectively failed to present a credible opposition to the government’s failed measures. So the forces opposing this right-wing government have coalesced... even further to the right, and this is evident in the growing membership of the Conservative Party. Mired in debates about the national question and petty issues, Québec Solidaire is still unable to convince Quebec of its relevance as a party. This should serve as a wake-up call to the more advanced elements of the working class and the population at large that this electoral charade and parliamentary antics ultimately always serve reaction and that it is through a revival of the class struggle that real progress can be made.