Recently, the Trump administration has put forward a number of “outrageous” proposals including the annexation of Canada  & Greenland, two countries with rich arctic shale oil & gas reserves. He has proposed to annex Gaza for a Middle East “Riviera” real estate project, while offering to broker a peace deal in Ukraine in exchange for direct control of rare earth mineral mines, amid a myriad of other hawkish threats directed at countries in the Western Hemisphere. While the liberals cry “oligarchy!” and “coup!” against democracy, there will be no return to “normal” & the reason behind the “madness” has nothing to do with the bourgeois chosen carnival barker, but is the product of the inevitable and world historical unfolding of capitalist economy whose highest stage is imperialism & fascism. A stage of human development which can only be brought to an end by international communist revolution.

The United States as with all the other world capitalisms is on the verge of a major economic catastrophe as a result of the global overproduction crisis. The exploding public and government debt, necessary for holding the world economy together after the 2008 financial crisis, is now at increasing risk of default year after year, something that has potential to erupt into the largest economic cataclysm in world history. As rival imperialist powers also continue their ascent, the U.S. bourgeois is in desperate straits finding fewer and fewer opportunities to simultaneously grow it’s profit margins and pay it’s debts.

Behind the dominant faction of the bourgeoisie in Washington are the interests of big oil, big tech and big auto. They aim to reassert the U.S. as an industrial and manufacturing powerhouse by kick starting an artificial intelligence (AI) industrial explosion fueled by cheap oil & cheapened labor, leveraging the U.S. new status as the largest producer of oil to corner the world energy markets, and maintain the subordination of potential rival imperialism in the U.S. orbit through ensuring their continued dependence on American imports and exports, as they build a protectionist wall to cut out Chinese companies that are hopelessly outcompeting U.S. corporations.

To “save America”, through the Republican Party they have united around the program of the far-right Heritage Foundation, which seeks to discard the prevailing norms of the domestic and international bourgeois legal order and alliance systems, downsizing the U.S. “administrative state” while promoting a litany of private-public projects aimed at renewing U.S. infrastructure and deepening nationalist and conformist indoctrination and terror, taking these desperate measures to attempt to ensure labor’s total subordination.

Big Debts

At the height of U.S. power following the two World Wars, the country was by far the world’s largest creditor. Through institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organization, and initiatives such as the Marshall Plan it financed the rebuilding of world capitalism through issuing massive loans and binding countries around the world to the U.S. dollar as its reserve currency.

As Capitalism has played its natural course, the United States is no longer the world’s largest financier but instead, its largest debtor. On the second day of Trump’s second term in office, the United States reached its $36.1 trillion annual borrowing ceiling. The ceiling forced the Treasury Department to take “extraordinary measures”, which are expected to hold the government over until March 14th, in order to continue US expense payments and avoid defaulting on government loans; however, it appears that congress will squabble until the last moment to finalize a plan, once again risking default.

According to the country’s largest hedge fund founder Ray Dalio in early February, the “The United States is currently in a ‘death spiral’ of debt that could lead to an economic ‘heart attack’". The potential for a U.S. default on its loans has increased dramatically in recent years, something that if it were to happen could trigger an economic cataclysm, global recession, frozen credit markets, plunging stock markets and mass worldwide layoffs. According to the Treasury Department, as of February 5th, in only one month’s time, already 60% of the department’s debt-cap measures had been exhausted, having only $133 billion left of the $338 billion authorized.

The United States is currently in $35 trillion worth of debt and the current proposed Republican Budget would add $4 trillion more to the debt. With a current value of around $28 trillion, the U.S. Treasury market is the world’s biggest bond market and is crucial to the U.S. government’s ability to finance itself and maintain stability of global financial markets. In 2013 the country’s debt to GDP ratio surpassed 100%. In 2023 it hit unprecedented levels of 123%, thus with each passing year it becomes less and less likely the U.S. will actually be able to pay it back. In fact, spending increased 50% between 2019 and 2021 due to pandemic tax cuts, stimulus programs, increased spending, and decreased tax revenues resulting from widespread unemployment.

Government debt is accrued by issuing U.S. treasury bonds which are purchased on a market by foreign countries and private investors that buy in expectation consistent and stable returns; however, if the government is unable to service their debt payments, the whole system implodes. As the current administration lobbies congress to remove the debt ceiling completely while maintaining large tax cuts, it is unlikely that the overall debt to GDP ratio will close anytime soon, even with significant spending cuts, thus only adding to the growing uncertainty and potential of a major financial crisis.

According to the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) in 2024 corporate bankruptcies hit their highest level since their peak following the 2008 financial crisis in 2010, with over 694 filings in 2024, accompanied with a large increase in delinquency rates on loan repayments. The retail sector hit with consumer budgets tightening due to inflation saw 108 companies file for bankruptcies followed by industrial and healthcare industries with 88 and 65 firms respectively. Over 30 companies that filed for bankruptcy had more than $1 billion in liabilities, including big names such as Party City, Spirit Airlines and Red Lobster. Credit-rated nonfinancial US companies held a record of $8.45 trillion worth of debt in 2024.

Inflation remains a lingering risk that could erode consumers’ buying power and long-term corporate bond returns, and is likely to increase with more tariffs.

Household debts are also growing at an alarming rate, according to the New York Fed overall household debt levels increased by 0.5% to $18.04 trillion, credit card balances topped $1.2 trillion, rising 7.3% from the fourth quarter of last year with 33% of Americans having more credit card debt than savings. The share of households becoming seriously delinquent (90+ days delayed payment) on their auto loans and credit cards are at 14-year highs, with 3.6% of the overall debt becoming delinquent in the final three months of 2024, the most since the second quarter of 2020.

The increasing threat of a default, has already led to the downgrade of the U.S. federal government’s credit rating by several credit rating agencies. The major agency (S&P) reduced the country’s rating from AAA (outstanding) to AA+ (excellent) in 2011 due to projections of net government debt rising to about 80 percent or more of GDP by 2013 and Fitch Ratings lowered the country’s credit rating to AA+ from AAA in 2023 due to the government delaying a debt ceiling agreement that year. For the consumer, a worse government credit rating leads to higher interest rates for payments on mortgages, auto loans and credit cards. A diminished credit rating is one part of a sequence of events that could eventually lead investors to feel the U.S. is less likely to pay off its debt, accordingly, more investors will demand higher interest rates for loans to compensate for growing risk and, in turn, U.S. debt would become more expensive. This will make it more difficult for the government to afford running its deficit spending for its budget and force it to cut back its program spending.

Ahead of Trump’s victory, Japanese investors offloaded a record $61.9 billion of the securities in the three months ended Sept. 30, according to data from the US Department of the Treasury. Funds in China also sold off $51.3 billion during the same period, the second biggest sum on record. Japan and China still own $1.02 trillion and $731 billion worth of Treasuries respectively, underscoring their power over the US debt market; however, the bond market has been in a “free fall” since the election, only flatlining in recent days. The economic reality of the American bourgeois state is that it must service it’s growing debt, financially it has very little room to maneuver without risking facilitating a global economic meltdown, potentially unlike what has ever been experienced in world history.

Thus, the fascistic orgy taking place in the White House is a desperate attempt by the American big bourgeois to avoid the existential fires mounting all around the capitalist system which is on the verge of economic cataclysm. While they claim to be stripping down the government of non-essential functions in an alleged attempt to lower the national debt, their actual proposals only enlarge the debt by increasing budgets for lucrative government contracts and retaining 4.5 trillion in tax cuts for the ultra wealthy, while squeezing the working class for every drop of surplus possible through increasing taxes on consumers in the form of tariffs, rising consumer costs and repression of wages amind increasing demands for repayment on private debts such as student loans.

As the rapidly enlarging national debt becomes more and more insurmountable, making any new major initiative on the part of the government increasingly financially risky, the grand vision to save America, via an economic autarky built on hardline tariffs, large scale public works projects, fueled by territorial conquests abroad under a renewed Manifest Destiny have so far fallen flat with Mexican and Canadian tariffs having to be canceled due to poor stock market response.

Despite promises of lowering inflation, the administration proves itself unable and uninterested in reducing the price of consumer goods such as eggs and its trade war policies will only lead to rising prices.

On the coattails of a campaign jammed packed with fevered dreams of a new utopian American Reich, the reality is that three weeks into the new administration and the government can barely manage to keep the lights on; however, the government now openly states that the average American must endure some “pain” in expectation of future prosperity and America becoming a “rich” country again. Thus to ward off the impending economic apocalypse the dominant section of the bourgeois put their hopes in reorganizing the economy around an industrial and manufacturing boom led by a massive artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructural expansion powered by an abundance of cheap energy resources.

Big Tech & the AI “Coup”

As we have pointed out, the debt to GDP ratio gap in the United States has continued to grow year after year, likewise the U.S. GDP has in recent decades averaged to around 2-3% growth annually about half the rate of countries such as India and China. Thus the U.S. economy must eventually close these gap or face its demise. Major financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs have pointed to AI as the solution to increase U.S. GDP growth, eventually increasing it to upwards of 7% annually by vastly increasing average worker productivity by automating an estimated 25% of work tasks and generating productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points annually. According to Goldman Sachs, “Assuming workers aren’t permanently replaced by automation and there’s capital to support the increase in productivity, the increase in productivity could boost long-run worldwide GDP by as much as 15%”, executives anticipate a small impact from AI on activity and hiring needs in the next 1-3 years but a much larger impact in the next 3-10 years. Sachs, further notes that information and communication technology (ICT) investment has already been the main driver of productivity growth in major economies over the last 20-30 years. While, the underlying productivity growth has been slowing, they say that research suggests that growth in total factor productivity tends to slow over time as countries develop, except during rare “regime shifts” such as those triggered by the “first and second industrial revolutions”.

The global artificial intelligence market size was estimated at USD 196.63 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 36.6% from 2024 to 2030. AI has proven to be a significant element of the upcoming digital era. Tech giants like Amazon, Google LLC, Apple, Facebook, IBM and Microsoft are investing significantly in research and development of AI, thus increasing the artificial intelligence market cap. The AI market is also characterized by a high level of merger and acquisition activity by the leading players. This is due to several factors, including the desire to gain access to new AI technologies and talent, the need to consolidate in a rapidly growing market, and increasing military strategic importance of AI. This industry has also been subject to increasing regulatory scrutiny due to concerns about the potential negative impacts of AI, such as algorithmic bias, privacy violations, and job displacement. As a result, governments around the world have begun developing regulations to govern the development and use of AI, angering many of the tech oligarchs who now wish to dispense of these troublesome and foolish employees.

To move the United States forward as a leader in the anticipated AI “technological revolution”, a massive $500 billion AI infrastructure initiative called the “Stargate Project” has been proposed by OpenAI, Oracle, SoftBank, and an Abu Dhabi–based investment fund called MGX which will open massive data centers around the US to massively expand AI. Oracle said in a statement the project aims to support the “re-industrialization of the United States,” providing 100,000 jobs and boosting capabilities to protect the “national security of America and its allies.” According to Fortune, the joint venture will invest an initial $100 billion of private capital to fund U.S. AI infrastructure, with a further $400 billion expected over the next four years.

Trump said he would help with other emergency declarations to get more AI infrastructure off the ground, citing the need to keep AI development in the U.S. He’s expected to issue a spate of executive orders to ensure new data centers built in connection with the investment will have enough energy. According to Technology Review, Much of the groundwork for this project was laid in 2024, when OpenAI increased its lobbying spending sevenfold and AI companies started pushing for policies that were less about controlling problems like deepfakes and misinformation, and more about securing more energy.

The amount of energy required for the most advanced AI systems could reach unforeseen levels. For example, Microsoft’s planned Stargate AI Supercomputer data center alone may require as much as four to six gigawatts of power, almost the equivalent to the power needs of a large city such as New York. According to Datacenter Dynamics, In the last three months, ExxonMobil and Chevron, the two largest oil and gas companies in the US, announced plans to develop gas-fired power plants to serve the data center market, citing AI power demand as the primary driving force, in addition to several new facilities they have already built last year to service AI demand. The growth of the AI sector led global market intelligence agency S&P Global to project last year that demand for natural gas to support data centers could reach up to three billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) by 2030. According to midstream energy and refining managing director Micheal Grande "It’s faster to power data centers with gas than to wait for emerging clean energy technologies.”

Despite the anticipated growth, Chinese innovation once again threatens U.S. Capital. Last month a small Chinese company unveiled a new AI technology called “Deepseek” that has thrown big Tech in the U.S. in a panic, jeopardizing their plans for a massive economic overhaul. Deepseek is a new AI program which operates at approximately 1/10th the energy costs of current AI technologies in the United States. With the release of its V3 model in December, which only cost $5.6 million for its final training run and 2.78 million GPU hours to train. For comparison, Meta’s Llama 3.1 despite using newer, more efficient chips takes about 30.8 million GPU hours to train. Nvidia, whose chips enable all these technologies, saw its stock price plummet by 600 billon on news that DeepSeek’s V3 only needed 2,000 chips to train, compared to the 16,000 chips or more needed by its competitors. While Deepseek has not reduced demand, it has sent silicon valley into a mad rush to advance their plans at an even more rapid pace to keep up with the competition. As such the need for cheap oil to fuel the AI boom necessary for U.S. economic growth, U.S. capital must rapidly move forward plans to grow it’s energy production.

Big Oil

The Past

The the oil industry has played a central role in machinations of American imperialism today as ever before. The expansion of the oil industry is crucial for fueling the anticipated AI boom, an industrial expansion the bourgeois desperately need in an attempt to avoid getting shoved off their fiscal cliff, while it is also a necessary element in the extension and maintenance of U.S. of the protectionist wall against China by providing cheap oil to ward off investment in EV’s infrastructure and supply chains. Ultimately for capitals accumulation deals with Russia must be struck and securing the artic for U.S. imperialism must be advanced.

A fact unknown to most Americans, is that in 2015 the United States became the largest producer of oil on earth as a result of the new technologies and innovative methods of horizontal high pressure hydraulic fracturing to drill for oil, known as fracking. Thus in 2016 the U.S. lifted its decades long ban on oil exports that were put in place after the 1973 oil crisis. For decades the United States was “addicted to foreign oil” as George W. Bush used to say, totally dependent on heavy crude oil imports. Prior to the fracking explosion US oil production peaked at 9.6 million b/d in 1970, annual U.S. crude oil production flattened and then generally declined for decades to a low of 5.0 million b/d in 2008. By 1972, 83% of the American oil imports came from the Middle East. The energy insecurity of the U.S. economy was first exposed during the 1973 oil crisis, when OPEC countries issued an embargo on oil sales to the U.S. At the time OPEC’s share of the world oil trade was 75%. It resulted in fuel shortages, forcing a rationing of gasoline and skyrocketing prices. Before the embargo, a barrel of oil traded for around $2.90, quadrupling to $11.65 per barrel by January 1974.

The oil embargo was the result of Middle Eastern countries retaliating against the U.S. for it’s military aid to Israel during the Yom Kippur War, fought against Egypt and Syria. The crisis triggered a major shock in the United States bourgeois who understood that their empire built on fossil fuel powered aircraft carriers and automobile sales had a major Achilles heel. Thus for decades after 1973, the focus of US imperial foreign policy was organized around subordinating OPEC countries in the Middle East and working towards “oil independence”. Thus it is no coincidence that Hamas deliberately chose the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War to launch its assault into Gaza last year on the eve of the ascendancy of the United States as a contender petrol-state.

In 2009 the rise of the fracking industry led to an economic boom which ultimately enabled the U.S. economy to quickly recover from the 2008 financial crisis. The development of horizontal drilling fracking methods created a groundswell of small independent frackers, who through various contracting agencies that brought the technological expertise, set up fracking operations on their land. The “drill baby, drill” movement, aggressively pushed to lift government regulations that prevented the extension of fracking throughout the 2010’s and open up public lands to oil extraction. Over the years these small proprietary operations were bought out and consolidated into the major oil corporations in the United States, a process which has rapidly played out over the last decade. By 2015 the US became the largest producer of crude oil in the world due to the continued expansion of fracking, producing 9.42 million barrels per day (b/d). By 2023, 64% of US crude oil production in the United States came from hydraulic fracturing & production averaged 12.9 million barrels per day, far outstripping domestic demand.

As the production of crude rapidly increased it led to a glut of fracked sweet crude oil on the U.S. market that was unable to be refined at U.S. refineries equipped to process foreign imported heavy crude, and a glut of Liquified Natural Gas also emerged. As a result, in 2016, the United States rescinded it’s decades long policy of banning oil exports to begin moving this surplus onto international markets. Despite opening up exports, the U.S. oil industry continues to face an overproduction crisis, due to limited consumption and market share. Any increase in production without a rise in price would only diminish profits, correspondingly the vast surplus forced U.S. capital to compete with other imperialist powers for control of foreign export oil markets. As fracked U.S. oil costs more to produce and thus is already sold at a higher price, it wasn’t able to break into major export markets outside North America, until after the February 2022 war in Ukraine, when Russian crude oil and LNG was sanctioned in Europe.

The U.S. a Rising Petrol State & the OPEC Cartel

In 2016, in response to dramatically falling oil prices due to U.S. fracked oil output on global export markets, Russia, Mexico and other oil producers that weren’t previously part of the OPEC alliance joined to form OPEC+. Within OPEC+, oil production between the countries is limited to mitigate the growing global overproduction crisis which could burst out in a crash unless carefully contained due to an over abundance of commodities on the market that leads to declining prices. Thus the cartel works to keep prices artificially high through limiting and reducing international production. However, these methods put a straight jacket on productive forces which overtime leads to intensifying contradictions between producers. As increased oil production capacities and facilities spread to new countries across the world, reactivation of decommissioned installations, and the incorporation of new production zones the price of oil on the global market continues to experience a downward pressure and faces declining profitability.

For a time the U.S. followed the OPEC strategy; however, it has increasingly sought to cut into their markets due to overproduction. Because of it’s diversified economy, it can run more risk of increased production and lower price. This forces OPEC nations to reduce production and thus loose market share; however, too low of a price for too long would also destroy the U.S. oil industry and fracked crude is more costly to produce, so while the U.S. may aim to cut into other OPEC markets it ultimately also must play a balance of controlling global oil supply to maintain profitability. Thus it too must ultimately seek to make allies amongst other elements in the cartel if it wishes to dominate the market and steal other smaller players market share. So we can see why the bourgeois is keen to open lines of communication with Russia once again.

Many OPEC nations require relatively high oil prices (often above 60–70 per barrel) to balance their budgets. OPEC countries government budgets tend to be from 30-90% reliance upon oil revenues. 60–70% of Saudi Arabia’s budget, 90% of Venezuela, 40-50% of Russian government revenue. When oil prices fall OPEC countries experience significant declines in government revenue, leading to budget deficits and economic instability. Unlike the U.S., many OPEC members lack diversified economies, making them more vulnerable to prolonged periods of low oil prices. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration between 2016 and 2025 OPEC+ global market share has declined from 53% to 46%, while the United States has grown from essentially a complete outsider to hold 9.1% market share. Today many OPEC countries can no longer afford to reduce prices further without vastly reducing returns and getting completely cut out of their existing markets. So to succeed in the oil market it requires a degree of cartelizing, while to break into it one must act as a bit of a rogue. So we can understand how the United States shifting geopolitical alliances under Trump are ultimately guided by these determining & impersonal economic realities.

The Future: Oil and the Ukraine War

In 2023 the U.S. became the world’s largest exporter of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and the fourth largest exporter of crude oil, followed by Canada in fifth place, and of whom approximately 97% of it’s crude exports go to the U.S. The two are sandwiched between OPEC+ countries with Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq respectively in the top three positions. Inversely the U.S. exports about 10% of its oil to each Mexico, China, Canada, the Netherlands & South Korea with the remaining exported to 142 other countries.

Following the War in Ukraine in 2022, The U.S. market share of crude oil imports in Europe rose to 18% overtaking Russia as the number one supplier as sanctions took place. Russia’s share of Europe’s natural gas imports has fallen sharply, from 31% in the first quarter of 2022 to nearly 19% by the end of the year. That has made the United States Europe’s second-biggest supplier of gas, with a nearly 20% share, behind Norway. Three years into the Ukraine war, as the two armies slaughtered each other for years spilling countless soldiers blood, Russian oil on the world markets flowed mostly uninterrupted. Russia withstood numerous weak sanctions, including the G7 mandating a $60 per barrel price cap on its oil sales. U.S. sanctions have not aimed to completely stop Russian international exports, despite its embargo to U.S. markets in fear of skyrocketing global oil prices. Despite these sanctions in 2024, the EU imported a record 16.5 million metric tons of LNG from Russia, surpassing the 15.2 million in 2023. Nevertheless, EU countries led by Germany, have done much to move off of their Russian oil and gas. Between early 2022 and the end of 2023, the EU slashed its imports of Russian fossil fuels by 94 percent, from $16 billion per month to around $1 billion per month

By November 2024, the United States had refilled its 400 million barrel Strategic Oil Reserve, which it had mostly depleted in 2022 to keep prices low in the face of a surge after the Russian fuel embargo. Thus, in January 2025 the Biden administration felt confident to issue a new round of sanctions which led to rising prices of Russian oil. Within a few days Russian oil in the Indian and Chinese market increased 20% in price. As a result India has decided to move away from Russian imports in favor of U.S. imports. The spike in shipping price was a result of aggressive push in the final days of the Biden administration, to intensify sanctions against Russian and Iranian tanker “shadow fleets” operating under flags of convenience. Also in January, Ukraine refused to renew the longstanding contract with Russia which allowed oil and natural gas to flow through it’s territories amid an intensified drone bombing campaign targeting Russian refiners that has reduced their output by 10-20%.

Facing the complete loss of access to European markets and the loss of its access to Indian oil markets which have accounted for approximately 30% of it’s oil revenues alongside a growing deficit of over $100 billion since the war began Russia faces a potential economic crisis. Despite the Trump administrations flattering tone towards Putin, behind the scenes the administration has threatened harder sanctions from those already initiated in the last days of the Biden administration. According to recent statements by the Trump administration envoy to Ukraine & Russia Keith Kellog at the Munich Security Conference on Feb 15 “So what does (Russian President Vladimir Putin) have to give up? Well maybe he’ll give up his oil revenue and we’ll force him to do it, because what you do is start employing sanctions that break the economic back.

While Russia has been winning the military conflict in Ukraine on the ground, it appears the United States is beginning to win the larger economic war on Russian oil, as Trump is set to meet with Putin to talk terms in Saudi Arabia in the coming days, the three petrol-states will likely also hash out a deal for carving up the world’s oil markets in a post-Ukraine war world.

Meanwhile, the offensive comments of JD Vance Trump’s vice president at the recent Munich Security Conference, have outraged and stirred the European states up enough to rally around Zalensky who is now calling for the creation of a “European Army”, as the UK pledges to send troops to Ukraine if necessary and the continental states plan to gather to discuss increased defense spending. Despite the cries of the liberal European democracies against the rise of American fascism, they ultimately act like obedient dogs and do just what the fascist were cajoling them to do, arm yourselves for war! Of course, this will mean no chance of them returning to cheap Russian oil, and no real chance for a revitalized German economy. However, they will continue to find a willing purveyor oil in the United States, despite the ruffled feathers!

Thus we can see the economic and political sands shifting all over the world, the U.S. dividing and conquering the to maintain its dominance around it’s oil economy as it’s primary imperialist rival China works to leave fossil fuels behind. The U.S. can then once again shift it’s military weight to other theaters within the global build up to the next inter-imperialist war.

The Battle for the Artic

In the first few weeks of the Trump presidency he announced the American big bourgeois ambitions for the conquest of Greenland and the annexation of Canada. Taking into consideration the United States functioning as an imperialist petrol-state due with it’s new role as a petroleum-exporter we can understand why it is important for U.S. capital to gain control of these areas rich in oil and rare-earth mineral resources. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects U.S. crude oil production to peak in 2030, while OPEC production is expected to continue rising through 2050. Thus for the U.S. to maintain its competitive advantage it must continue to expand it’s operations. As we have already pointed to the extensive reliance of the Canadian economy on both U.S. oil imports and exports it is clear why annexation of Canada would be in the economic advantage for the forces of U.S. imperialism. Likewise, an analysis by the U.S. Geological Survey suggests that Greenland “contains approximately 31,400 million barrels oil equivalent of oil” and other fuels, including around 148 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

As global warming has commenced the receding of the arctic ice caps has made the arctic area a zone of increasing economic and strategic significance. The climate reality has led to the opening up of Canada’s Northwest Passage and Russia’s Northern Sea Route. These pathways could significantly shorten shipping time by 30%-50% between Asia, Europe, and North America. The area is expected to have 13% of undiscovered global oil reserves and 30% of natural gas reserves, along with an abundance of rare earth minerals. Greenland is rich in untapped rare earth elements such as dysprosium, neodymium, europium, and yttrium. All important materials for AI hardware, quantum computing technologies, renewable energy systems, and advanced defense equipment. The Tanbreez project alone contains an estimated 28 million tonnes of rare earth oxides, nearly 30% being heavy rare earth elements. These resources could significantly reduce U.S. reliance on China, which currently controls over 80% of global rare earth element production.

Currently the arctic is becoming a hotly contested zone for world imperialism. Russia, which controls 53% of the Arctic coastline, has heavily militarized its territories with airbases and naval forces, while China has declared itself a “near-Arctic state” to justify its growing investments in Greenland’s mining sector. It also holds substantial stakes in major Russian Arctic LNG projects. By acquiring Canada and Greenland, the United States would secure dominance over these resources and routes while acting against Russian and Chinese ambitions.

Big Auto: Mexico and Chinese Electric Vehicles

China’s EV market has grown exponentially over the past decade. In 2020, EVs accounted for about 5–6% of new car sales, but this figure has surged to over 30% in just a few years. China’s share of the global electric vehicle (EV) market in 2024 is expected to be around 76%. China is the world’s largest exporter of battery cells, cathodes, and anodes. In February 2024, Chinese manufacturers held three of the top five spots for global market share. In Q4 2023, Chinese automaker BYD sold more electric vehicles than Tesla. Electric cars account for 20% of total global car sales in 2024. According to Goldman Sachs China will also have the capacity to produce something close 25 million EVs by late 2025, as production is currently increasing by close to 4 million cars a year and Chinese firms continue to invest heavily. China now has a capacity to supply over half the global market for cars, which is typically around 90 million cars a year. China currently has the capacity to produce over two times its own domestic demand and is adding to that capacity quickly thanks to the rapid expansion of its electric vehicle sector. It thus has almost unlimited potential capacity to export. China has gone from exporting a million (low end) cars a year in 2020 to exporting 6 million cars a year in 2024.

Thus while we have so far explored the imperialist conflicts the U.S. is entering into as it emerges a dominant petrol exporter, its conflicts with China around the emerging AI and tech markets, and we can now see the lines of the conflict around the automobile export industry. For China, it has built an industry around supply chain which is at it’s advantage for its control of 80% of the worlds rare earth mineral deposits. For the United States, its role as the world largest producer of oil, means that its automotive industry is tied to its access to cheap petrol.

The ascendancy of U.S. capital’s world domination was built on the back of its auto-industry in the post-war era. It was an industry led in its early days by the national hero Henry Ford, an open and notorious supporter of Adolph Hitler and his National Socialist Party. Today we have Elon Musk filling in those shoes. The American auto industry faces a new existential challenge from the rising Chinese auto industry that dominates the globe’s electric vehicle markets, and faces a new potential competitor in Mexico.

As a result the tariff war on China many companies have moved their production centers to Mexico to access relatively cheap exploitable labor and close proximity to US consumer markets. Over the years the Mexican economy has rapidly industrialized and grown to become the largest producer of exported goods to the US, comprising 13% of all imports, displacing China last year who held that position for nearly half a century; however, the Mexican economy is highly dependent upon exports to the US, which comprise 83% of its overall export economy, making it highly vulnerable to US imposed tariffs, a fact which gives the U.S. serious leverage over Mexico in negotiating terms of trade deals. Likewise Mexico and Canada are the two largest export markets in the world for the declining U.S. automotive industry. U.S. automakers (Ford, GM, and Stellantis) collectively hold a 20-25% market share of new vehicle sales in Mexico.

A key development in the Mexican economy has been the move of auto manufacturers across the world to locate their factories in the country. A handful of cities such as San Luis Potois have become little Detroit’s hosting many international car companies such as BMW, Volkswagens, Audis, Mercedes-Benzes, Fords, Nissans and Chevrolets. In the first nine months of 2024, Mexican factories produced more than three million vehicles, of which two million were exported to the United States. In 2022, Mexico produced approximately 3.5 million vehicles, making it the 6th largest vehicle producer globally. Mexico exported around 2.8 million vehicles in 2022, accounting for 80% of its total production. The growing standards of living of Mexican workers has also led to a large internal consumer market for automobiles in which the imperialist powers now struggle for control over.

The automotive consumer market in Mexico is dominated by imports of cheap Chinese vehicles. China has positioned itself as the main car supplier in Mexico with exports reaching $4.6 billion in 2023 according to data from Mexico’s Secretariat of Economy. This growth was driven by increased demand for its affordable electric vehicles according to data from automakers and research firm MarkLin. The Chinese company BYD wants to sell 100,000 EVs in Mexico in 2025 and it plans to build a massive new manufacturing plant in Mexico this year. Elon Musk for years had planned to invest billions with the development of the EV “gigafactory” in Mexico; however, recently he has put his plan on hold, leveraging for more suitable deal. In response to early tariff threats, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum put forward plans for Mexico to develop their own supply chains and begin producing their own domestically produced EVs to compete on global markets.

Thus as international manufacturing companies have moved to Mexico to access cheap labor, it is now developing into a rival industrial power just as has happened with China. For U.S. capital, it wishes to both repel Chinese competition within Mexican markets and subordinate the Mexican economy to a subservient role within its new industrial reorganization and “reshored” supply chain.

Moving in suit with the U.S. this summer, Canada announced it would implement a 100% tariff on electric cars and a 25% levy on steel and aluminum from China, which is broadly in line with levels proposed by the former Biden administration, making Canada currently the only other country to completely align with the US on its trade policies with China. Bourgeois leaders in both countries have expressed dissatisfaction with Mexico’s ties to China and its lack of fully committing to the trade war. For a time Mexico had considered joining the BRIC’s alternative economic alliance to the G7 and is presently a part of the OPEC+ alliance. A large Mexican tariff on Chinese EV’s would clear out the far and away largest competition for US auto manufacturers in the Mexican market. While Mexico has followed along by imposing some tariffs on steel production, they have not complied to the extent that satisfies US capitals desires for domination of its markets. Long before the second Trump presidency the NAFTA era cooperation between Mexico and the other two North American states began to erode.

In a reversal of previous administrations who attempted to present a reformed face to US imperialism in Latin America, During Trump’s last administration he began to openly claim the Monroe Doctrine while initiating a campaign to push China out of Latin America. The recent renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America is only an attestment to that ambition. In the last decade China has become the main trading partner of most South American countries. Despite this, attempts to keep China out of the region have been longstanding. Over half of the countries that still recognize the ROC and thus remain trade partners with the U.S. and Taiwan instead of PRC are located in Latin America. The return of the vengeful eye of U.S. imperialism to Latin America also has the focus of curtailing developing regional imperialist blocks such as the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA) founded by Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela to include many Bolivia, Cuba, Dominica, Nicaragua and others.

Capital’s New Axis

Today’s threats of military conquests targeting yesterday’s allies are all part of a new global divide being carved up by the preeminent imperialist powers. As the rising capitalisms in the East begin to put to rest any hope of the United States permanently preserving its status as the sole hegemonic imperialism, the old “Washington Consensus” has disappeared. The old faction of “neoliberal” and “neoconsevative” within the bourgeoisie Parties, received it’s final kick in the ass with the defeat of Kamala Harris in 2024. The commercial policies of a global “free market”, acceptable when the U.S. was the hegemonic power, are now blown away amidst the expanding trade wars. The apparent “multilateralism” between the U.S. & its allies is replaced with a “multi-polar” world of competing rivals and subject States. The hypocritical “international liberal”, “rules based order” which served as justification for countless wars since the end of the last great imperialist conflict, is replaced with an open & shameless embrace of a return to the Monroe Doctrine. The theater of high minded bourgeois legality, dropped for the simple assertion of “might as right” to justify territorial conquests. All the once great “liberal democracies” are falling one by one. As regional capitals across the world become imperialist competitors and the looming over production crisis afflict almost all sectors, the impending financial catastrophe which will set the stage for the complete destruction of the bourgeois world order becomes increasingly unavoidable.

The current economic and existential crisis facing the American bourgeois as a result of the overproduction crisis, the resulting exploding national debts, it’s declining competitiveness in it’s automobile, tech and manufacturing sectors, combined with it’s newfound rise as a major petroleum exporter, amid the inevitable growing concentration of the productive forces into a smaller and smaller number of large conglomerates, these representatives of the big bourgeoisie have asserted their dominance at the head of the pack of wolves and today they must execute a rapid readjustment to many of it’s states long established foreign policies and legal norms to “save America” which really means preserving the ability of their national capital to continue to accumulate. It is the economic laws of capital accumulation which ultimate shape and determine the changing sands of political and social forms. At this stage of world imperialism fascism, democracies rude counterpart becomes inevitable.

Today the exploding contradictions in capital have pushed the two bourgeois parties into an increasingly sectarian struggle which paralyzes the legislature. As big capital consolidates around the Republican Party, the old neoconservatives Republicans increasingly jump ship to the Democratic camp or capitulate. As the petit-bourgeois flood into the Democrats enflamed from the bold moves of the big-bougeosis to push them aside, the social democratic wing takes lead in performing the role of opposition; however, to continue to accumulate big capital’s needs must be put above all others and the rest of the bourgeois must fall in line or be forcefully subordinated. To break through the legislative stalemate, the old government system created to separate and balance powers between competing interests must be tossed aside and a no-longer veiled dictatorship of capital established. Yet as our Party demonstrated in our 1922 Report on Fascism written upon its rise in Italy, it is only a passing form of bourgeois democracy itself, completely capitalist and completely subject to the same laws of capitalist crisis, which will eventually gives rise to the return of the world wide communist movement culminating in the end of the bourgeois phase of history at the hands of the dictatorship of the proletariate led it’s international communist Party.