During the recent negotiations, the Russian delegation stated that the aim of the talks should be “lasting peace,” addressing “the root causes” of the conflict. The Kremlin’s conditions for peace are: Ukraine’s neutrality, i.e., not joining NATO, not hosting foreign troops or bases, and not possessing weapons of mass destruction; recognition by Ukraine and the international community of the annexation of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia to Russia.

The Ukrainian government has repeatedly called these demands “unacceptable” and repeats that “Crimea, like all of Ukraine, must be free.” But it has no “cards to play,” as it was reminded on “world television.”

The Ukrainian capitalists are certainly worried about having to confess to the proletarians sent to the front that their sacrifice has been in vain. And not because those soldiers have lost the national war, but because this is the result of all wars, a new division of the spoils from which the proletarians are always excluded and which benefits the ruling classes.

The Ukrainian bourgeoisie’s refusal to make concessions to the victor is unrealistic and criminal, when it is now clear that it is impossible to stop the Russian advance, let alone organize a counterattack to regain the lost territories. The continuation of the war will cost thousands more lives and cause further terrible destruction without changing the final outcome of the conflict. As a former adviser to Zelensky said, “Ukraine can negotiate and lose five regions today or continue fighting and lose eight in a few months.”

But in this attitude, the Ukrainian government is backed by some European states that continue to call for a “just peace.” Not even the “willing,” i.e., France, Great Britain, Poland, joined by Germany, with pretensions of taking the lead, intend to provide decisive military aid to Ukraine, either in arms, men, or financial aid. The same position is held by NATO.

According to various observers, Russia, strengthened by the perception of a growing military advantage and the progressive disengagement of the United States in supplying arms to Ukraine, is preparing a summer offensive. Ukraine, on the other hand, suffers from a shortage of soldiers, lacks the necessary weapons, and its economic resources are dwindling.

Meanwhile, the continuation of the war is in the interests of all capitalists: it favors the military industry and allows the plundering of Ukraine’s mineral and agricultural wealth for the benefit of European and American industrial giants.

Moreover, the Russian bourgeoisie is also at risk. Economic, social, and political problems have been accumulating during these years of war and could trigger a resumption of class struggle.

Therefore, there is very little chance that the upcoming negotiations will have a positive outcome and put an end to the war. It is no cliché to say that it is easier to start a war than to end one.

A war that has now lasted more than three years, involving millions of soldiers, has enormous costs in terms of human lives and materials, and has depleted a large part of the arms and ammunition reserves of Western countries as well as Russia and its allies.

Russia started the war because war is always profitable under capitalism and to react to NATO’s encirclement. The oligarchic Ukrainian bourgeoisie waged a proxy war, sold out to Western capitalists, first and foremost the Americans. The war will therefore end when the big European, American, and Russian corporations agree on how to divide up Ukraine’s assets.

The talks between Trump and Putin had hinted at peace based on a blatant division of those riches, part of an agreement for broader economic ties between the two imperialist states. Currently, it seems that everything is back on the table, perhaps reopening the game for other players, such as China, which has been present in the area for years, and European states such as Germany, Great Britain, Poland, France, and Italy, minor imperialist powers which, despite having contributed to arming Kiev with weapons and money, now risk being excluded from the game.

Furthermore, on the borders, the bourgeoisie of Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland are waiting for the right moment to reclaim the territories that were taken from them at the end of the Second World War. The outcome of this struggle for Ukraine can be summed up in one sentence: it has lost everything. This is yet another lesson for the proletariat on the value of bourgeois appeals for the struggle for freedom, national independence, the defense of the homeland, and other such nonsense.

The war in Ukraine, like those in the Middle East, is part of the need for war of world capitalism. All the major states are accelerating their efforts to improve the efficiency and consistency of their armed forces. The demand for new weapons systems is welcomed by industrial sectors which, hit by the crisis of overproduction, will convert their civilian production. The European Union is urging its member states to increase their military spending by revising their national budgets, even by increasing debt. This was considered heresy until a few months ago. They are calling on governments to spend less on health, education, and infrastructure and more on the military.

The issue even worries Italy’s Minister of Economy, who makes no secret of his dislike for Brussels politicians: “It will be very difficult politically to increase defense spending disproportionately and reduce social spending: I don’t think any government is willing to do so.”

We must prove the Minister wrong: governments will do it, even at the cost of not being re-elected, because they serve the interests of the bourgeois regime, and the bourgeois regime wants rearmament. It will not be democracy or parliaments, whether right-wing or left-wing, that will defend the living and working conditions of the proletariat in the coming years, the years of preparation for general war. It will be the proletariat itself that must do this, fighting resolutely for substantial wage increases, a general reduction in working hours, improved working conditions, and against nationalist and patriotic propaganda, rearmament, and threats of war.