The Rearmament of the States
An increasingly divided European Union pretends to find unity as a third imperialist pole, in opposition to those led by China on one side and the US on the other. But the newly elected Chancellor Mertz already contradicts this: “The federal government will provide the armed forces with all the financial means they need to become the strongest in Europe.”
The pretext is that “strength keeps aggressors at bay.” In truth, if the history of the last century has shown anything, it is that the clash that is being prepared is only falsely between the attacked and the attackers, because war is an economic necessity for all forms of capitalism, and rearmament is a consequence of this.
For the moment, the states of Europe seem to be siding with the US. The German chancellor continues: “We see elements of systemic rivalry in China’s foreign policy actions and view with concern the growing closeness between Beijing and Moscow.” Similar tones are coming from Paris and London.
It is not that the European bourgeoisies are more warmongering than others, they are just in a weaker position than their rivals, and they speak openly of world war, rearmament, and mobilizing the population, after decades of proclaiming the sacred principles of the rejection of war, democratic peace, and similar nonsense, always with the same intent of confusing the proletariat.
Since 2022, defense companies around the world have seen their orders, revenues, and stock prices swell, with corresponding dividends for shareholders, who in Europe are often the states themselves. In Germany, Rheinmetall is considering buying Volkswagen’s Osnabrück plant to build tanks, one of three factories that the carmaker wants to close in Germany. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the company has increased its stock market value tenfold, while Volkswagen car sales in 2024 have fallen by 3.5%.
At the meeting, we brought to the attention of our comrades the data on military spending by individual states. Knowledge of these figures and their variation over time provides a picture of the balance of power between imperialisms, avoiding bourgeois media propaganda.
The data published by SIPRI starts in 1949, in the early years following the end of the Second Imperialist World War, and covers more than 140 countries. Today, we will limit ourselves to examining the changes that have taken place in recent years and only in relation to the countries that spend the most.
During 2024, a total of $2.718 trillion (at 2023 dollar values) was spent on arms worldwide, an increase of 9.4% over the previous year, a sharp rise. This expenditure is equivalent to 2.5% of global gross domestic product. This is the tenth consecutive year of rising global spending, but since 2021, global spending has accelerated, and even more so in the last year.
The biggest investors in arms are the major imperialist countries, that “handful of states” that today, as in the early 20th century, dominate the world. Eight of them, the US, China, Russia, Germany, India, Great Britain, France, and Japan, account for 66% of arms spending with $1.804 trillion. The top 15 spend 80% of the world total, but account for less than half of the population.
The United States of America, with a population of 347 million, 4% of humanity, spends 37% of the world total on arms.
The availability of arms, which are increasingly powerful and destructive, is proportional to the economic development of capitalism. Military force therefore benefits the capital invested in the military-industrial complex, which has no homeland but responds only to the interests of finance and profit.
In Russia, spending has reached $150 billion, an increase of 38% compared to 2023 and double that of 2015, corresponding to 7% of the country’s GDP, more than three times the share of European countries. The five largest European countries (France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, and Poland) alone spent $311 billion. The figures provided by Von der Leyen are patently false.
The mercenary Ukrainian bourgeoisie is martyring the country on the orders of European and US imperialism, which supplies it with loans and weapons. In the last year, the country’s military spending has reached $68 billion, 34% of the country’s GDP. Ukraine also has an active national arms industry that employs nearly 300,000 workers. The Ukrainian industrialists have therefore already won their war!
Germany has increased its military spending by 28% compared to the previous year, reaching almost $86 billion, earning fourth place in the world rankings. Disarmed Germany has been able to quickly recover thanks to its financial potential and powerful industrial apparatus.
In Poland, a country with a military tradition and steeped in anti-Russian nationalism, military spending had already begun to grow massively since 2018; the government took advantage of the war in Ukraine to cry out about the Russian threat, and since 2017 it has almost tripled. In the last year, it has increased by as much as 30%, reaching $35 billion and exceeding 4.0% of GDP.
Britain is one of the few Western countries that has kept spending stable. London is not sparing Russia its anathemas, but the increase in spending in 2024 will struggle to cover inflation alone.
European NATO members already spend a total of $454 billion, or about three times Russia’s spending, and 30% of NATO’s total spending. But, as SIPRI points out: “Simply increasing spending will not necessarily translate into a significant increase in military capabilities or greater independence from the US.” The general increase in military spending demanded by the President of the European Parliament does not actually serve to strengthen a “European defense,” which does not exist, but only to feed the military industries. Each state spends on its own army. A European army will never be formed. On the contrary, in 5-7 years we will have a powerful German army, a powerful French army, a powerful Polish army, and the war front will once again cross Europe as it did twice in the last century.
The US, the world’s greatest imperialist power, has reached a spending level of $997 billion, an increase of 5.7% over the previous year, 3.4% of GDP, 37% of global military spending, and 66% of NATO spending. In addition to spending on personnel and bases that the US maintains across much of the globe, the commitment, according to SIPRI, goes “towards modernizing military capabilities and nuclear arsenals to maintain a strategic advantage over China and Russia.”
Canada, the other major North American country, has kept its spending steady at around $29 billion, or 1.3% of GDP.
Brazil is the largest investor in arms in Latin America, with spending of around $22 billion, down significantly from $27 billion in 2018.
Mexico has increased its commitment by 39% to $16.7 billion, mainly to strengthen the National Guard and the Navy, which are active in the war against organized crime and illegal immigration.
Military spending by Middle Eastern countries was around $243 billion, an increase of 15% compared to 2023 and 19% compared to 2015.
Israel increased its spending by a whopping 67% to $45 billion. This represents almost 9% of the country’s GDP, second only to Ukraine. US military ‘aid’, under an agreement signed during the Obama administration, amounted to $3.8 billion per year, about 15% of Israel’s normal defense budget. Since October 7, 2023, this commitment has been exceeded by “emergency aid.” In the first year of the war alone, the US allocated approximately $23 billion to Israel and related operations, nearly six times the usual package. The US covered approximately 70% of Israel’s war-related military expenses, enabling it to conduct a prolonged campaign on multiple fronts. Weapons were supplied by the US (67%), Germany (32%) and Italy (1%). We can therefore say that the genocide in Gaza was commissioned by Washington and made possible by the US and Germany.
Other countries in the region did not increase their spending significantly, with the exception of Lebanon, which increased it by 58% to $635 million.
Significantly, Iran reduced its military commitment by 10% to $7.9 billion. The impact of sanctions and the social situation within the country prevent the regime from demanding further sacrifices for the war.
Saudi Arabia remained virtually stable at $79 billion, but appears to be preparing to sign an agreement for a massive purchase of arms from the United States: $142 billion. To put this into perspective, between 1950 and 2022, the Kingdom purchased a total of $164 billion worth of American arms.
The world’s second imperialist power, the People’s Republic of China, increased its spending by 7% over the previous year to reach $318 billion. Beijing is investing in the modernization of its armed forces, the strengthening of its cyberwarfare capabilities, and its nuclear arsenal. The difference in the cost of weapons on the Chinese market compared to that of other countries, especially the US, makes it difficult to estimate the real size of the Chinese military apparatus. China is concentrating its resources in the Indo-Pacific. The US armed forces, on the other hand, although superior to the Chinese overall, are engaged in many regions of the globe, which today gives Beijing an advantage.
Japan has increased its spending by 20% to $58 billion, the largest increase since 1958, bringing spending to 1.4% of GDP, exceeding the 1% that had been imposed on the country since World War II.
Taiwan’s spending, despite growing tensions with Beijing, has remained virtually stable at $16 billion.
India increased its military spending by just over 2% to $84 billion. This represents 28% of China’s spending and 9% of the US’s, a very significant difference, which is also reflected in the quality of equipment, nuclear capabilities, modernization, and treatment of personnel. The solution sought is to replace imports of weapons systems with domestic production.
Pakistan, on the other hand, has reduced its spending by about half a billion in recent years, settling at 8 billion, after peaking in 2021 at 106 billion.
On the African continent, despite being shaken by some of the bloodiest wars for civilian populations, especially in the sub-Saharan region, spending on arms and armed forces has increased by only 3% compared to 2023 and 15% compared to 2015.