The war in Ukraine has once again brought Turkey’s role as a rising regional imperialist power to the fore

Turkey was one of the first countries to join NATO after the end of the Second World War, in 1952, despite the neutrality maintained by the Kemalist İnönü government during the second imperialist war and the ambiguous attitude towards Hitler’s Germany. US diplomacy had understood the importance of Turkey in the strategy of encircling the Eastern bloc on the southern flank and thought it well to make it an ally. In turn, Turkey’s new pro-Western Menderes government felt the need for NATO’s protection against a possible Russian threat, and the alliance came with the cost of Turkey’s participation in the Korean war with a total force of 35,000 soldiers, over 700 of whom died according to official figures.

Over the years, the Turkish army has become the largest within NATO after the US but military spending has always remained rather limited. Moreover, historically the army has been used above all in maintaining order within the complex country first against Kurdish rebellions; then through a number of coups, the most significant ones being against the Menderes government in 1960 and against the political chaos as well as increased workers’ militancy in 1980, and afterward again to fight the Kurdish insurgency lead by the PKK. In any case, aside from the invasion of Northern Cyprus in 1973 by the left-Kemalist Ecevit government and repeated “operations” into Southern Kurdistan, the Turkish army was for the most part not used as an instrument of aggression towards the outside.

In recent years, things have changed profoundly. The Turkish government lead by Erdoğan has started a policy of Islamic nationalism by putting itself forward as a regional imperialist power. At the same time it has successfully sought to build a national arms manufacturing industry by trying to free itself from the cumbersome presence of the United States, to seek a freer and more independent national policy.

The 2016 coup attempt lead by the Gülen cult, Erdoğan’s former allies, for which Erdoğan implicitly blamed the United States, accentuated Istanbul’s rapprochement with Moscow. The acquisition of the S400 anti-missile system from Moscow and the consequent refusal of the US to supply Turkey with the F35 fighters already partially paid for, has exacerbated tensions between the two countries.

Meanwhile, the Turkish government has been trying to expand its influence in Arab countries, Africa and the Mediterranean, alarming not only Egypt, but also Greece and France. Moreover, due to the fact that Erdoğan’s Turkey opposed the Esad government in Syria and the Libyan National Army lead by Haftar in Libya, both Russian allies, its relations with Moscow remained contradictory.

The war in Ukraine has put Turkish diplomacy in a serious crisis. Despite finding itself on the opposite side in the regional conflicts mentioned above, the Turkish government has good relations with Moscow and, above all, trade between the two countries and the continued arrival of Russian tourists are very important for the Turkish economy. Russia not only supplies armaments but is building a nuclear power plant in Turkey and supplies gas. However, Turkey also has good relations with Ukraine with which it collaborates precisely in the strategic armaments sector.

A break in relations with the Russian Federation would certainly create new problems for the Turkish economy, already plunged into a deep crisis and further aggravate the conditions of the proletariat severely affected by inflation. In fact, an increase in the price of energy could only accelerate the inflation process.For now, Turkey continues to keep its feet in two shoes: it refuses to adopt economic sanctions against Russia and has not closed its skies to Russian flights, at the same time it continues to supply arms to Ukraine. The Turkish government has tried to get out of the corner by proposing itself as a mediator in the search for a peace agreement. Though an agreement between Russia and Ukraine seems quite unlikely for now, both countries have so far been eager to accept Turkey’s role as a mediator, and Ukrainian leader Zelensky even proposed Turkey be a guarantor of peace if an agreement is ever reached.

An important point to be considered is that due to the increasingly worsening economic crisis, the popularity of Erdoğan’s Islamist Justice and Development Party and his fascist allies are significantly dropping and the six party alliance lead by the Kemalist social democratic Republican People’s Party and the dissident fascist Good Party are on the rise. Akşener, the leader of the Good Party has already openly condemned Erdoğan for not doing enough for Ukraine, and the social democrats are known to have much better relations with the United States, the United Kingdom and above all the European Union. As the United States tries to do all it can with the aim of weakening the Russian adversary as much as possible, Washington’s side in the next Turkish elections, scheduled for 2023, seems clear. In turn, if the war between Russia and Ukraine is still going on by then, a new Turkish government lead by the current opposition will surely move firmly towards the West, and consequently against Russia, hoping that mending disrupted economic ties with the West will make up for disrupting economic ties with Russia.

If peace under capitalism is when the next war is being plotted, peace negotiations are when the coming battles planned. Turkey has already assumed an important role in the imperialist war between Russia and Ukraine by playing the mediator and saving face for both countries as well as itself, while preparing to better position itself for the conflicts of the future.