The German economy is one of the most exposed to the repercussions of the war in Ukraine.

For now, the negative effects on the EU of sanctions are limited, but if they were extended to oil and gas, or if Russia cut off supplies, the effect would be greater. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that in 2022 the war in Ukraine will reduce German GDP by 0.8%, compared to 0.7% in France and 1% in Italy.

In Germany, the global surge in commodity prices is already being observed: in February, the wholesale cost of energy increased by 130%, gas prices tripled and food supplies are also at risk. Inflation is expected to rise to 6.2%, while wages will not keep pace: thus, as elsewhere in Europe, the working class will be hardest hit.

Germany is Russia’s second largest trading partner for imports (first is China): it receives 10% of Russian exports. It is 40-50% dependent on Russia for hydrocarbons: industry and domestic consumption depend on cheap Russian gas. In addition, an increase in bill prices could lead to claims for wage increases. Thus, the German bourgeoisie is reluctant to accept the imposition of more sanctions on Russia, as demanded by the Ukrainian government and the United States.

It is considered unlikely that Russia will cut off gas supplies. Shifting sales to third parties, particularly China and India, would mean accepting a large reduction in price, and thus revenue. However, on March 29, the German government announced contingency plans in case of a severe reduction or blockage in supplies.

The Federal Republic’s relations with Russia date back to Willi Brandt’s "Ostpolitik" in the seventies of the last century, when an attempt was made to ease tensions within the divided Germany and reduce German dependence on the USA.

Meanwhile, the German bourgeoisie, behind the current "red-green-yellow" government, is taking advantage of the geopolitical situation to increase military spending. Before the invasion of Ukraine this decision would have been unacceptable to large sections of the population. At the end of February, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) announced that the military budget will be tripled: the largest German rearmament plan since World War II. The goal is to bring it to at least 2% of GDP. The decision to buy dozens of F-35 stealth bombers is now followed by a plan for national missile defense. A delegation of politicians went to Israel to negotiate the purchase of the US-Israeli long-range system Arrow 3. The German bourgeoisie has a clear intention to establish itself militarily, replacing Britain and France as the leading military power in Europe.

This rearmament policy has the support of the entire parliamentary spectrum. Even the "left-wing" party Die Linke, which is losing support, has jumped on the war bandwagon, so much so that its founder, Oskar Lafontaine, has resigned in protest. But in general, all "leftist" parties and groups have abruptly swerved towards militarism and in support of the war: even the Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, of the Greens, who flaunted feminist and climate and human rights positions!

In the lower echelons, as in 2015, there was an attitude of compassion and welcome toward Ukrainian refugees, some 300,000 of them, most of whom arrived by train to Berlin via Poland, only to be sorted across the country, many in temporary housing.

But unlike in 2015, this outpouring of solidarity is accompanied by poisonous pro-Ukrainian nationalism - yellow-blue flags fly everywhere on public buildings - and anti-Russian animosity. The bourgeois media and the state apparatus work at full capacity to channel the common instinct of solidarity towards nationalistic resentments. The reception of refugees falls largely on the spontaneous efforts of the population, but are taken up by politicians and businesses. Celebrities participate in events of ideological propaganda, for "democracy" and "freedom", if not for explicit commercial interests. Authorities of the Ukrainian state, sports champions, television comedians, and pop artists appear on video, all of whom suddenly and shamelessly removed "the flowers from the cannons".

In spite of this smokescreen, aimed at getting the working class to accept rearmament, the Ukrainian government, obedient spokesman for the American master, called the visit to Kiev of German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier "unwelcome", as he would have been too friendly to Russia. Indeed, which side will Germany ultimately take? However, certainly, against the proletariat, first and foremost German.

According to a recent poll (for what it’s worth, but in the meantime they let it be known...) still more than half of Germans would oppose a total embargo of fuel imports from Russia, despite the incessant propaganda that they would "finance Putin’s war machine". The reality is that the working class knows that, one way or another, it will end up bearing the brunt of the crisis.

The main industrial unions, IG Metall, IG BCE and IG Bau, have asked the government for emergency funds, not for the working class but to protect energy-intensive industries such as automobiles from bankruptcy. They see the lack of liquidity and reduced competitiveness of companies compared to other countries as a serious threat to jobs.

In Ford’s international restructuring there is already conflict between the union at the Saarlouis plant in Germany and the one in Valencia: the increase in energy prices puts the Spaniard at an advantage.

The German trade unions are thus playing their traditional role of ally of national capital and enemy of the international proletariat. Of course, they are also concerned that the rising cost of living will lead their members to demand more combative action.